If the Tories follow Trump, they will be haunted by regret

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Published by The i paper (22nd July, 2024)

Ronald Reagan is routinely hailed on the right as one of the greatest Republican presidents in United States history for his role in winning the Cold War and sparking a conservative revival that reshaped the political landscape. His name was invoked often by candidates during the 2016 campaign.

One bragged of meeting him as a child, another said they idolised him as a teenager, a third styled himself the first real conservative running for the White House since “The Gipper”. Donald Trump inevitably went furthest. “I helped him,” he said. “I knew him. He liked me and I liked him.”

There was little evidence to support this claim beyond a solitary picture of the pair, although Reagan was such a promiscuous diarist there is mention of 21 dental trips even in his edited output. Yet, last week emphatically underlined how the party for so long in thrall to Reagan’s optimistic vision of American exceptionalism – based on devout belief in big business, free trade and democracy – has been taken over by Trump’s darker brand of populist politics that preaches a revivalist message rooted in fear, isolation and pessimism.

And on this side of the Atlantic, a bruised Conservative Party is watching closely as it searches for ideas to restore its fortunes. Trump’s success seems incredible after his lies about election theft, his stoking of insurgency, his unprecedented convictions and court cases – but it is indisputable. There were even T-shirts on sale proclaiming “I’m voting for the felon 2024” at the Republican National Convention.

Yet this Trumpite makeover could be seen far beyond the adulation for their idol after he survived an assassination attempt. Five of Trump’s family members spoke in Milwaukee, including his son Donald Jr’s fiancee and 17-year-old daughter. His choice of JD Vance as vice-presidential pick demonstrated his control over the party, rather than kowtowing to rival factions. His slogan “Make America Great Again” is the party’s tagline. Before his key speech, fanboys strutting the stage included a sacked Fox broadcaster who has cosied up to Vladimir Putin, an ageing rock star singing about “Bad Ass America” and a shirt-ripping wrestler.

Given the current climate, it seems amazing to recall that Reagan’s final speech as president was a passionate tribute to immigration, hailing “the magical, intoxicating power of America” as a beacon of freedom and opportunity that lured people from all over the planet to enrich their land.“This quality is vital to our future as a nation,” he said. “If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.”

Now Reagan’s party wants to slam shut this door, build fences and expel the sort of undocumented migrants given an amnesty by the former B-movie star.

Trump was greeted by placards demanding “mass deportations now”, laid on chairs for delegates to wave. Despite efforts to pose as a unifier, he stoked the hysteria on migration by falsely claiming it was the root cause of spikes in crime, housing prices and inflation. In place of Reagan’s confident warmth, Trump ranted about immigrants supposedly “coming from prisons, they’re coming from jails, they’re coming from mental institutions and insane asylums”. His platform states they will not allow “Biden’s migrant invasion to alter our country”.

Such virulent hostility to migrants is interwoven with economic populism that rails against big business and multilateral corporations, cultural battles against women and minorities, plus an alarming isolationism that panders to despotism at a time when democracy is engaged in global struggle with dictatorship. This stance was symbolised by Vance saying: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another” before he opposed sending crucial aid to Kyiv.

Throw into the mix their contempt for governing institutions, seen so starkly with bogus fraud claims after the 2020 vote, and we see a party sliding uncomfortably close to the populist far-right and authoritarian nationalist parties as it sheds any remaining vestiges of Reaganism and retreats from upholding democratic norms.

The Trump-Vance ticket solidifies this transformation (although their economic populism is questionable when backed by billionaire financiers and tech titans).

But the big issue for British Conservatives, still coming to terms with crushing defeat, is whether to follow the same path into this fetid swamp that appeals to an inevitably dwindling slice of the electorate – especially if the Republicans sweep to triumph under their celebrity leader against whoever succeeds Biden, making their fool’s gold look more dazzling.

It should be noted, incidentally, that the Democrats won the most votes in seven of the last eight elections since the days of Reagan and his successor George Bush, even when losing the White House.

The Tories helped set the pace for the populist right with their blundering adoption of Brexit, which fuelled their deserved hammering after 14 years in power. Now they look bewildered after so many years of bickering among their self-absorbed clans, shredding their historic brand while menaced by resurgent rivals on both flanks.

The median age for their voters was 63 after aiming their dismal campaign at older voters. Yet fresh analysis of their defeat by the Onward think-tank finds that among their bedrock of homeowners, the biggest fall in support came from those aged between 55 and 74 years old, while a sickly NHS was the priority issue across all age groups. As Onward concluded, the central issue was collapse of trust in their competence, intensified by Boris Johnson’s contemptuous behaviour and Liz Truss’s arrogance. But will the Tories learn from their debacle?

They cling to the legacy of Reagan’s soulmate Margaret Thatcher, who believed in open markets, resolute defence of democracy and protecting the global environment, even if she failed to share his unbridled admiration for immigration.

Yet, already siren voices jostling for control of the shrivelled party echo Trump with crass language on migration, vile attacks on LGBTQ+ citizens and seeking rapprochement with a bigoted Reform leader pushing Putin’s propaganda. They should not follow the Republican Party’s false messiah but remember Reagan’s words: that it takes courage to do what is morally right.