Theresa May must make a lonely stand against Putin
Published by The ipaper (2nd January, 2017)
Thirty months ago I stood in a cornfield amid rolling hills of eastern Ukraine, surrounded by shattered human bodies. Men, women, children, even a couple of dogs, lay scattered around me after falling from the sky. I will never forget the sight of a small girl, perhaps five years old, beside her pink stuffed toy. Meanwhile, allies of those behind the deaths strutted around, looting possessions and using corpses as twisted propaganda for their cause.
These were scenes of mass murder. Victims included British football fans, families flying on holiday, students heading home. They had misfortune to be among 298 people, including 80 children, on a civil airliner shot down by a missile fired from a village held by pro-Russian rebels. All evidence indicates the weapon came from Russia, its transporter returning back over the border afterwards. This was a slaughter of innocents indelibly linked to the Kremlin.
How quickly we forget. How fast global attention shifts. And as Vladimir Putin knows better than most, how effective the smokescreen that can be blown up around atrocities with falsehoods, knowing they will be fanned by useful idiots on both far right and far left. This helps enable a corrupt nationalist bigot to trample democracy at home, raze cities abroad, annexe slices of neighbouring nations – and still emerge stronger and more potent on the world stage.
After the tremors of 2016, our own nation stares nervously at the year ahead. This will be a testing time for Theresa May, struggling to define herself politically while wrestling with fallout from a calamitous referendum that pitches a divided country into uncertain terrain. At the same time she must stand firm in a potentially-lonely stance against Putin, who seeks to poison our liberal values just as he poisoned a dissident in London.
As last year ended we saw clearly the challenge posed by a disruptive president who has even subverted the election process in the world’s strongest nation. This led to a chilly echo from Cold War days with the United States expelling 35 Russian envoys for involvement in Russian hacking during the presidential campaign. Then there was the Syrian truce that underscored Putin’s new alliance with another increasingly-autocratic leader in Turkey, once again highlighting the weakness of disunited Western powers.
Meanwhile a Russian official admitted for the first time to a huge doping operation involving hundreds of athletes in another dismal reminder of Soviet days under this former KGB spy. ‘It was an institutional conspiracy,’ said Anna Antseliovich, acting director of Russia’s anti-doping agency. Events such as those glorious London Olympics were corrupted in this scam involving state security services. Yet the Russian regime lied over its involvement – just as it lied over invading Crimea, lied over stirring up conflict in Ukraine and lied over links to the downing of MH17.
Putin is a president whose rule is etched in blood. This began within weeks of taking power, when almost dozens of citizens died in suspicious tower block bombings that allowed him to unleash carnage on Chechnya, and has continued unabated through to the tragedy of Aleppo. Despite falling real incomes he remains hugely popular at home thanks to his hardcore rhetoric, deft manoeuvres on the international stage and rigid media control aided by plundering cronies.
Putin is a president whose rule is etched in blood. This began within weeks of taking power, when almost dozens of citizens died in suspicious tower block bombings that allowed him to unleash carnage on Chechnya, and has continued unabated through to the tragedy of Aleppo. Despite falling real incomes he remains hugely popular at home thanks to his hardcore rhetoric, deft manoeuvres on the international stage and rigid media control aided by plundering cronies.
Barack Obama was slow to see Putin’s threat, mocking his Republican opponent in 2012 for saying Russia was the “number one geopolitical foe”. Now he understands the deadly impact of a major nation prepared to brazenly defy international norms. Yet as Obama departs office we must brace for the White House to be occupied by a billionaire with ties to Russian financiers who has encouraged cyber-assaults on his own democracy, dismissed security service allegations against Moscow, fans Putin’s propaganda and plays diplomatic footsie with the diminutive Russian leader.
The bromance between Donald Trump and Putin is alarming. Britain could soon be the only one of the five permanent members on the United Nations security council taking a tough line against Russia. France’s presidential battle looks likely to be between a conservative who is friendly with Putin and wants sanctions lifted against a far-right admirer of Putin whose party was bailed out by Russian cash. Even in Germany, where the redoubtable Angela Merkel stands again for election, there are signs of Russia stirring up racism and fears over migration to aid her populist rivals.
After six years in the Home Office, May is untested on the international stage. No doubt she will focus mainly on extricating Britain from the European Union without too much damage, which will waste so much national energy over the next decade. The need to forge new deals with Europe and the wider world will make it harder for her to stay firm against machinations of this ruthless Russian president. She may find herself a lonely voice seeking retention of sanctions, let alone fresh measures to curb this rogue ruler and his allies. Siding with Trump after vice-president John Kerry criticised Israel does not bode well for her resolve.
Putin’s foreign adventurism should have turned his great nation into a pariah state. He uses skills learned in KGB days to corrode democracies, chip away at core values and threaten global stability. Yet his demonic brand of diplomacy has only strengthened his hand as hesitant Western nations turn inwards and nationalism rears its ugly head again. This year marks the centenary of a Russian revolution that shook the world. The tremors can still be felt today – and May’s response might shape her legacy almost as much as Brexit.