Published by The i Paper (6th October, 2025)
As the Conservatives gather in Manchester for their annual get-together, the mood is funereal. Britain’s most formidable political machine over the past century looks like it is spluttering into the history books, outflanked by more adept rivals on both sides and unable to adapt to the political landscape that it helped shape through the stupidity of Brexit. In the 15 months since suffering their worst general election result for almost 200 years, the party’s plight has become even more intense, its predicament grown more existential, and its leadership seems even more clueless.
There have been prominent defections, council losses, and polls plummeting further. Yet we have heard no real or heartfelt apologies for the shocking blunders in power that left Britain so much weaker, no truth and reconciliation process to atone for all the selfish sins in office, no accountability after leading the country down the foolish path of Brexit and leaving public services in such dire shape. Instead, the Tories seem determined to double down on the mistakes that drove them to this dark point, doing everything possible to deter moderate voters as they lurch ever further to the nativist right.
Dazzled by Donald Trump’s electoral success in the United States and dazed by the rise in Britain of his mini-me Nigel Farage, the latest floundering incumbents at the helm of the Tory party seem to see their future as a shrilly populist pastiche of Reform UK. So with weary predictability, they pledge to scrap climate targets and follow Russia in leaving a landmark international human rights convention. And now Kemi Badenoch says she will deport 750,000 illegal immigrants with the sort of Trump-style hit squads perpetuating such performative cruelty in the US.
This all raises a fundamental question the party should ponder: why on earth do the Conservatives think anyone might want to vote for them? They are not even very good as a tribute act, so plodding and ponderous in their attempts to mimic skilled populist chancers such as Trump and Farage.
The Reform leader, a long-time critic of the European Convention on Human Rights, has said he will leave it if he becomes prime minister. So Badenoch suddenly does the same. Asked why she jettisoned her previous (and correct) belief that this move would not solve Britain’s problems, she bleats that their reforms are serious rather than sloganising – then declares that she will block candidates who fail to back this policy from standing for parliament.
It is pitiful. Little wonder no one is listening to this pointless party, although it retains all the advantages of parliamentary opposition such as asking the prime minister six questions each week.
There is grim irony that this conference is followed by events to mark the centenary of the birth of Margaret Thatcher, whose giant shadow hangs so heavily over the party. A fast-shrinking band of loyalists suggest their current boss is the great woman’s real successor, pointing out that Thatcher also struggled in her first year. Yet Badenoch seems most comfortable as a strident culture warrior rather than jousting over the era’s major economic or geo-political debates. And Thatcher, for sure, would not have sneeringly dismissed carers as people who “wipe bottoms”.
It is laughable that Badenoch claims the party of austerity, Brexit and Liz Truss was too left-wing in government. Yet for all her arrogance, flaws and incompetence, she remains far preferable to her attention-seeking rival Robert Jenrick, with his tough-guy makeover, disgustingly ramped-up rhetoric and shallow social media stunts. One well-placed Reform insider told me they see him as their biggest potential prize, although warning that he needs to make up his mind quickly about defection. Regardless, this repellent opportunist is far from the saviour of his current party.
It is extraordinary to witness the Tory party refusal to face facts. It cannot defeat populism by echoing the hardline policies and harsh language of foes intent on their eradication. Again and again, they get outflanked by Farage. But again and again, they pursue this self-defeating strategy.
The tragedy for the Tories is how they are testing this obvious theory to the point of their own possible destruction at a time when tribal loyalties have never been more fluid, a Labour government has crashed to record-breaking unpopularity, a Liberal Democrat leader seems to be pursuing a career in comedy, our debt-laden country faces huge problems at home and abroad, and the support of centrist, concerned and moderate voters is there for the taking.
The electoral data and splintering of support is telling. About 1.75 million Labour voters at the last election do not know where to put their cross now, according to data from YouGov’s Dylan Difford. Most were Tory defectors and two-thirds are women – but only one in 20 have a positive view of Badenoch’s party. There are another 1.1 million people who backed the Tories but are now unsure how to vote. Reform gained about two million Tories – more likely to be older, male and worried about immigration. But they are far more likely to be lured back with ruthless focus on the cost of living and salvaging of public services rather than trying to outbid Farage on his core issue of immigration.
If the next election is fought on migration and the so-called war on woke, there will be only one winner. Badenoch seems to have an inkling there is a gap in the market for consensus on major issues such as welfare reform and public finance restraint. Yet she adopts the dismal mantle of hard-right populism and pushes its poisonous rhetoric, playing straight into Farage’s hands rather than attempting to build an election-winning coalition in a fight for truly conservative values.
The Conservatives still need to confront the cause of their own corrosive unpopularity, prove they have learned from their woeful 14-year stint in government and demonstrate the courage, honesty and maturity to win back those appalled by its past antics. After all, as Badenoch herself once said, being different means you are noticed more.